Job Market Paper
Who Moves, Who Stays: The Rise of SMAs and Tax Fragility of the Mutual Fund Industry (Draft Coming Soon)
This paper documents the fragility of mutual funds (MFs) in the face of competition from separately managed accounts (SMAs) and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Despite facing higher fees and tax inefficiencies, MFs remain a dominant investment vehicle. This paper highlights one channel for this persistence: the significant cost that taxes on unrealized gains create when selling MF shares. These potential gains lock investors in by raising the tax burden of exit, but when redemptions occur these same gains magnify capital gains distributions, shifting taxes onto those who remain and creating incentives for further outflows. I document stylized facts on the rise of SMAs, including their declining minimums and their advantages relative to MFs. Combining new data from SEC filings, I show that MFs with higher unrealized gains experience fewer outflows, generate larger distributions, and have higher fees, consistent with managers responding to a more locked-in investor base. I then develop a model of investor choice and endogenous distributions in which MF capital gains distributions generate strategic complementarities in redemption decisions, producing multiple equilibria: a stable outcome with limited exits and a fragile outcome with cascading redemptions. Counterfactuals highlight how retirement investor flows and higher tax rates amplify these forces.